Worldwide PC shipments declined slightly in the first quarter of 2002, reflecting
continued pressure on the market. Shipments were down 2.7% year on year
and 8.9% sequentially to a total of 31.4 million. Market growth was up relative
to a projected decline of 5.4% year on year, consistent with a slowly recovering
Shipments in the United States were nearly on par with a year ago, as
the market transitioned from decline to recovery. First quarter shipments
were down 0.4% year on year, while a sequential decline of 6.1% was modest
compared to the historical average of -10.4%.
The regional outlook, as shown in the study, is the following:
- United States - Still no growth although the market is improving.
Consumer spending held up well for the first quarter, although the market
remains quite cautious. We expect the United States to lead as the market
- Europe - Traditional sequential decline from the fourth quarter.
Growth trend is similar to the United States, although more moderate
changes in growth. Consumer and commercial buyers remain cautious and
are spending on other priorities.
- Japan - Market decline continued in line with expectations.
Economic weakness weighed on the market, particularly in the commercial
- Asia - Regional growth remained positive but in the low single
digits. Growth in China improved, while the region's second and third
largest markets, South Korea and Australia, returned to positive growth.
From the point of view of the vendors, the IDC market researk shown:
- Dell - Made solid gains in shipments and market share in all
major regions. Dell is competing aggressively in this market transition
by leveraging its direct business model in the United States and abroad.
- Compaq - Performed reasonably in light of the merger although
growth was below market for both U.S. and international.
- HP - Despite the distraction of merger issues, HP refocused
its PC business - growing shipments roughly in line with the market.
In the US, HP managed flat growth from a year ago although declines
accelerated in Asia.
- IBM - IBM also refocused its U.S. business, particularly in
commercial desktops while worldwide growth was slightly behind the market.
- Fujitsu - Fujitsu held onto its home market of Western Europe,
but experienced slight declines in Asia.
- Gateway - Held market share in the markets that it has chosen
to defend, U. S. consumer and small business segments, as a result of
an aggressive price-cutting campaign. Nevertheless, overall shipments
were down significantly.
The top 5 vendors remain Dell, Compaq, HP, IBM and Gateway.